US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? ↗

Price fell 7.6pp from 29.6% to 22.0% over 16.5h (back_loaded), then reversed. Now at 24.5%, up 2.5pp from trough, 2.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = a signed US–Iran nuclear deal by June 30; NO = no deal signed by then. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=6, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Cessation D-collapse: raw D≈10 → collapsed D=6. Incremental only: E=0, D=2 (priced-in: E=3, D=4). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 30% to 22%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence or Strong Divergence: incremental flow was net D (US/Gulf Arabs drafting a UN resolution condemning Iran over Hormuz; Israel approving major new fighter purchases) and offered no new pro-deal steps, while earlier pro-deal items (Iran’s proposal via Pakistan, mediator contacts) were already priced in. Critically, none of the fresh items are ★ DIRECT toward “deal signed” — they either escalate or harden positions and therefore fail to advance the settlement criteria. Given near-term time decay and fresh anti-deal signals, the 7.6pp drop is justified; the partial bounce looks like routine noise rather than a structural reversal.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.