Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? ↗

Price fell 6.0pp from 65.5% to 59.5% over 96.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 61.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 5.0h after the trough.

retrieval recorded but no surviving headlines — the keyword nets didn't match any articles in the window.

Semantic Polarity: YES=Keiko Fujimori wins the 2026 Peruvian presidential election; NO=any other outcome (loss, withdrawal, or disqualification). Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: DOWN (from 66% to 60%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — election market
No ★ DIRECT events (e.g., official disqualification, credible aggregated polling collapse, formal withdrawal) were found to justify a 6pp markdown, so the drop appears flow-driven rather than news-driven; by Divergence Priority this leans toward overreaction. Given the CIRCUIT BREAKER — SEARCH FAILURE banner, we must keep conviction low and size small, but absent verified de-risking news, the 6pp slide looks unjustified and likely to mean-revert partially.

Kill switches:
- Peru’s electoral authority (JNE or ONPE) announces Keiko Fujimori is disqualified or removed from the ballot
- Multiple reputable national polls or an aggregation show her moving from lead to clearly trailing by 5pp+ within days
- Prosecutors file new, credible corruption charges with court action that materially impedes her candidacy
- A major rival coalition unifies behind a single opponent with a formal endorsement pact and joint campaign rollout
- Keiko Fujimori publicly withdraws or is hospitalized with a campaign-ending health event

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.