US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 5.0pp from 17.5% to 22.5% over 8h (front_loaded). Now at 22.5%.

Days to resolution: 27 days. Theta-bleed check: Deadline is within 90 days and a positive action is required, so absence of progress would be bearish for YES; here we have fresh process steps that offset time decay. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES: multiple outlets report “very positive” US–Iran talks, Iran says it received a US response to its latest offer (a concrete exchange), and Pakistan’s mediator role is reaffirmed; the trend is UP, so news and price ALIGN. Momentum looks moderately intensifying with a tangible proposal/response step (D7/D1) beyond rhetoric, while the planned US ship-escort operation is best read as coercive diplomacy context rather than a derailment signal. After clustering: distinct events are (1) talks confirmed/“very positive,” (2) Iran’s confirmation of receiving a US response, (3) mediator role reaffirmed; counter is (4) Trump’s earlier stated rejection/blockade stance now partly mooted by the new response — Momentum signals: trend=3, counter=1. With a fresh concrete step and alignment to the move, follow-through is more likely than a fade over the next 2–3 days. Remaining space: 77.5pp. Hard-rule checks: No news-trend conflict; not balanced mixed; conflict-ending market cap not triggered; theta-bleed present but outweighed by new process news.