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Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ↗
will-ahmad-vahidi-be-head-of-state-in-iran-end-of-2026
· Iran leader end of 2026? · category: Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Regime, Middle East, Politics, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, World
· resolves
run_id: 5276722c-909f-4a70-939a-6a921b90b0b3
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
action_not_tradeable: STALL
signal detected
● executed
detect_momentum · UR
direction
UP
current price
4.3%
anchor → trigger
0.6% → 4.3%
cusum @ trigger
5.15
trigger hours
1h
duration
1h
72h range
0.6%—4.3%
(Δ3.7pp)
tick density (6h)
0.50
Price rose 3.7pp from 0.6% to 4.3% over 1h (spike). Now at 4.3%.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 45 → 2
quality: HIGH
tokens: 14584
gnews_antithesis
relevant
Pezeshkian brands IRGC escalation ‘madness’ as tensions rise in Tehran - ایران اینترنشنال
gnews_thesis
relevant
Iran after Khamenei: IRGC still holds power and economy - The Jerusalem Post
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-UR · continuation analysis
STALL
conviction: LOW
opportunity: SMALL
action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_trend_ur_v6.2.0 · 10588 tokens
Days to resolution: 239 days. Theta-bleed check: Deadline >90 days, so time decay is negligible over the next few days and absence of news does not mechanically push YES down. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports neither side; there are no direct, resolution-touching items about Ahmad Vahidi, so the trend UP for YES lacks alignment (MIXED/starved). News momentum is starved: items concern IRGC tensions or other succession figures (e.g., Mojtaba Khamenei) and do not mention Vahidi; a small spike without a catalyst looks liquidity-driven with limited follow-through. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With zero concrete signals and a long horizon, there’s little to sustain further upside in the short term; while a partial retrace is possible, the sub-5pp spike argues for stabilization rather than a sharp reversal; Remaining space: 95.7pp. Hard rules: Rule 2 (BALANCED MIXED) and Rule 4 (starved/plateauing language) bind to STALL; Rule 5 (spike exhaustion) not triggered since move <5pp.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
all
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ action_not_tradeable: STALL
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.