US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price fell 15.9pp from 42.9% to 27.0% over 44.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 42.5%, up 15.5pp from trough, 13.5h after the trough.

Assessment: FAIR
Conviction: MEDIUM
Size: null
Reasoning:
- Semantic Polarity: YES = an official US–Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by May 31, 2026; NO = no such meeting occurs by that date. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World.
- Momentum check: E=2, D=4, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
- Incremental only: E=2, D=4 (priced-in: E=0, D=0).
- Self-check: no change.
- Theta direction: DOWN
- Price move direction: DOWN (from 43% to 27%)
- Alignment: SAME
- Theta: DOWN — aligned
- No Strong Divergence: opposing (E) signals = 2 (<4). The key E items were process-only and indirect (US pausing “Project Freedom” to enable talks; US pressing China to influence Tehran), while multiple fresh D items made a meeting less likely (Iran attacks/air-defense activity, new Hormuz permit regime, US–Gulf drafting a UNSC resolution against Iran). None of the news confirmed or scheduled a US–Iran meeting, so the 16pp slide is consistent with time-decay toward a near deadline plus net-negative momentum and is therefore justified.

Kill switches:
- US State Department announces a scheduled US–Iran bilateral meeting to occur before May 31.
- Iran’s foreign minister publicly confirms a meeting with the US Secretary of State set for a date before May 31.
- A credible mediator (Qatar/Oman/China) publicly confirms direct US–Iran talks are scheduled to begin imminently with a date.
- White House or Iranian MFA readout confirms a direct US–Iran meeting has already taken place.
- UNSC or major mediator announces a multilateral session explicitly including US and Iran with confirmed date before May 31.