Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? ↗

Price fell 12.1pp from 97.2% to 85.1% over 9h (spike). Now at 85.1%.

Days to resolution: 3 days.
YES-WORLD = Powell is no longer Fed Chair by the end of May 16, 2026 (resignation/removal/effective replacement); NO-WORLD = he remains Chair through May 16 or any change is announced but not effective by then.
Both ★DIRECT items are EVIDENCE-tier via NEAR-MISS: “Powell to step down” is rumor/market-chatter pointing to end-of-month timing, and “Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Governor” is a process step that facilitates succession but does not make Powell out by May 16.
Theta-bleed check: this is a time-decay market very near the deadline; in the absence of concrete action, decay should favor NO at ≥80%, so further downside in NO requires fresh, settlement-timed catalysts beyond process.
The ★DIRECT news is directionally pro-YES but not settlement-grade for the date window; the spike appears tied to a single process catalyst and looks plateauing rather than intensifying.
After clustering: 2 distinct ★DIRECT events; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0; Remaining space: 85.1pp.
Hard rules: Rule 4 (plateauing) and Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary ≥80% without fresh settlement-class action) bias STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.