Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗

Price fell 2.5pp from 40.0% to 37.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 37.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 40.5%, 72h range: 32.5%-43.0%]

Days to resolution: 237 days. Theta-bleed: not active (deadline > 90 days), so absence of news does not mechanically pressure NO lower. No ★DIRECT items; context leans slightly pro-YES (hurting Netanyahu’s standing and talk of opposition coordination) but is offset by a Bennett-specific negative allegation, so signals are MIXED and only loosely aligned with the DOWN move in NO. Momentum looks starved/plateauing: just one fresh contextual piece about Netanyahu’s northern support and no concrete coalition steps naming Bennett or formal processes underway. Momentum signals: trend=2, counter=1, but all are low-quality CONTEXT, not concrete actions. With no verified coalition moves, votes, or formal mandates toward Bennett, this small, steady dip likely stalls rather than extends; Remaining space: 37.5pp. Hard rule check: Rule 1 (news-trend conflict) not triggered; Rule 4 (plateauing/starved) applies and biases to STALL; theta-bleed rules not binding.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.