Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? ↗

Price rose 4.6pp from 40.6% to 45.2% over 1h (steady). Now at 45.2%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 44.1%, 72h range: 40.6%-56.6%]

Days to resolution: 3 days. Theta-bleed is not a major factor here, as the deadline is within 90 days but the trend is UP and the market requires a positive action (AITC winning most seats), so absence of news would not drive price down. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES, as both BBC and Yahoo News Canada report that the high-stakes West Bengal election has begun, directly referencing the start of the voting process relevant to the market's resolution. The trend is UP, implying YES is becoming more likely, and this aligns with the news. News momentum is PLATEAUING: the two ★DIRECT events are essentially the same real-world event (the start of voting), widely reported but not escalating further within the window. After clustering, there is 1 distinct ★DIRECT event from 2 articles. The CONTEXT events provide background but do not directly affect the resolution. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 54.8pp. The move is steady and matches the timing of the concrete process step (voting starting), which is a legitimate catalyst per Principle 2. Step 3 hard rule check: No conflict, not highly mixed, and the single concrete action supports the trend, so CONTINUE is allowed with MEDIUM conviction (per the conviction floor and clustering rule).