US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price fell 6.0pp from 38.5% to 32.5% over 8.0h (front_loaded), then reversed. Now at 35.5%, up 3.0pp from trough, 22.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = US and Iran formally sign a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026; NO = no signed deal (conflict/pressure continues without an agreement). Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. This is a CESSATION market.
Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=3, D=1).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 38% to 32%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence or Strong Divergence: the drop occurred without fresh verified signals; there were no ★ DIRECT resolution-level headlines (no deal signed). Priced-in process E-signals included “talks are very positive,” a reported Tehran 14‑point plan under US review, and Iran receiving a US response; a single D-type context was a Hormuz shipping attack. With a near-term deadline, a 6pp decline is theta-aligned time decay rather than news-driven repricing. The move was justified; absent fresh breakthrough signals, there is little mean-reversion edge beyond noise.

Kill switches:
- Joint US–Iran announcement of a signed “permanent peace” agreement (text released or signatures confirmed)
- White House and Iranian MFA confirm a date/venue for a comprehensive peace summit within weeks, with both sides stating a final text is agreed “in principle”
- Mediator (e.g., Pakistan/China) publicly releases or confirms a draft final agreement accepted by both parties
- Coordinated confidence-building package directly tied to a final deal (e.g., large prisoner swap plus phased sanctions relief) jointly announced
- Senior US and Iranian officials state “deal within reach, to be signed by [specific date]” with detailed terms outlined

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.