US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? ↗

Price fell 3.0pp from 29.5% to 26.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 26.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 27.5%, 72h range: 26.5%-39.5%]

Days to resolution: 47 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a time-decay market with a positive action required and <90 days remaining; absent news, theta would favor NO drifting downward (benefiting YES). Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO (hardening positions and a formal conditional refusal by Iran), while the trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely) — this is a CONFLICT. Momentum looks to be intensifying slightly toward deadlock/hardline rather than toward a deal, and the front-loaded drop lacks a pro-deal catalyst in this window. Step 0.5 decomposition: YES-WORLD — a formal US–Iran nuclear agreement is signed/announced by June 30; NO-WORLD — no such signed/announced agreement by June 30 (talks, preconditions, frameworks without a signed deal are NEAR-MISSES). ★DIRECT classification: (1) Iran sets five preconditions for renewed talks — ACTION-tier (formal refusal to proceed absent conditions; supports NO); (2) Trump signals “hard line” — RHETORIC (counts 0); (3) Trump says cease-fire on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s response (May 11) — ACTION-tier but STALE. After clustering: 1 distinct fresh ACTION against a deal; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=1, counter_stale=1. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1. Remaining space: 26.5pp. Step 3 hard rule check: Rule 1 (news-trend conflict) binds → cannot CONTINUE; other rules do not constrain further.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.