Iran leadership change by May 31? ↗

Price rose 3.5pp from 15.0% to 18.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 18.5%.

Days to resolution: 37 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline <90 days, positive action required, trend is UP), but price is at 18.5% (near the 20% boundary), so theta effect is diminished and any move should be capped at ±3pp unless there is a fresh catalyst. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no news directly referencing a change in Iran’s leadership or concrete steps toward such a change. The trend is UP (YES more likely), but the news does not align: all coverage is CONTEXT (regional conflict, sanctions, diplomatic maneuvering, rumors about Iranian officials’ health, but nothing about actual leadership change or process). Step 1b: The story is plateauing—no new actors or intensifying signals, just continued coverage of the broader conflict and diplomatic environment. Step 2: After clustering, momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0 (no direct signals either way). No escalation or de-escalation signals relevant to the market’s resolution criteria. Remaining space: 81.5pp. Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) applies—price is ≤20%, so theta-bleed effect is diminished and STALL is preferred unless there is a fresh catalyst, which is absent. Also, per Principle 1, the absence of any ★DIRECT signal means LOW conviction is appropriate. No rules support CONTINUE, and there is no reversal evidence.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.