Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? ↗

Price rose 6.0pp from 10.5% to 16.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 14.0%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 6.5%, 72h range: 6.5%-22.0%]

Days to resolution: 24 days. This is a time‑decay market with a positive action required; absent concrete steps, theta-bleed is bearish for YES, and with price ≤20% the bar for sustained upside is higher. The ★DIRECT news is MIXED, but ASYMMETRIC toward NO: reported “progress” and China’s urging are rhetoric, while the only concrete action is Iran’s recent missile/drone attacks on U.S.-flagged ships in Hormuz, which opposes an agreement to unrestricted shipping; the trend is UP, so this conflicts with the strongest signals. The story looks front-loaded off “reported progress,” yet Iran officially denied new exchanges and there is no signed document or formal proposal, while physical targeting of shipping persists. After clustering: (1) reports of progress/China urging (rhetoric), (2) Iran denial of new exchanges (rhetoric), (3) confirmed attacks on/targeting of ships (ACTION against YES). Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1. Given spike exhaustion, theta-bleed against YES absent hard steps, and lack of concrete movement toward an agreement, a partial retrace is more likely than follow-through. Remaining space: 83.5pp. Hard rules: Rule 5 (spike >5pp without lock-in) and Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) lean away from continuation; Rule 1 (news-trend conflict) blocks a bullish call.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.