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Starmer out by December 31, 2026? ↗
starmer-out-by-december-31-2026-936-416-977-234-134-475
· Starmer out by...? · category: Grooming Gangs, Politics, Starmer, UK, World, keir
· resolves
run_id: 5cac36d9-503b-458e-bcd7-371137810ae2
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
[BACKFILLED 2026-05-12] event_dedup self-skip bug blocked at 4.1, but planner would have rejected at step 7 anyway: poor_real_rr: real_rr 1.08 < 1.2 for steady move (Risk=21.0pp vs Reward=22.6pp). Reclassified planner_skipped — no position opened.
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
action: NO
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v3 · 17512 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Starmer is out of office by Dec 31, 2026; NO = Starmer remains in office on that date. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=2, L=3 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=2, L=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=1, L=2). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 48% to 70%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed The price move is aligned with general pressure-to-oust headlines, but there is no Strong Divergence against the move (opposing D=2 <4). No ★ DIRECT resolution evidence occurred: no resignation tendered, no formal leadership contest triggered or vote scheduled; one concrete threat (Catherine West) was later withdrawn, and Starmer explicitly said “No” to resigning, which blunts near-term odds. A 22pp steady rise on process-only pressure (calls to resign, “how to oust” explainers) is larger than news justification and shows narrative overshoot for a far-term “out by” market. The move was not fully justified and should partially revert lower.
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ [BACKFILLED 2026-05-12] event_dedup self-skip bug blocked at 4.1, but planner would have rejected at step 7 anyway: poor_real_rr: real_rr 1.08 < 1.2 for steady move (Risk=21.0pp vs Reward=22.6pp). Reclassified planner_skipped — no position opened.
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.