Starmer out by May 15, 2026? ↗

Price fell 14.3pp from 46.1% to 31.8% over 0.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 34.1%, up 2.3pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 8.6%, 72h range: 2.6%-46.1%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Starmer is out (no longer PM) by May 15, 2026; NO = he remains PM through May 15. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=2 (priced-in: E=1, D=1). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 46% to 32%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Strong Divergence: incremental opposing signals (E) < 4 and D does not contradict the move. ★ DIRECT-wise, nothing announces a resignation or schedules a no-confidence process before May 15; instead, Starmer repeatedly vows to stay and Catherine West withdraws an immediate challenge in favor of a September timetable (bearish for “by May 15”), while MPs’ revolt/aides’ resignations are process pressure without an imminent mechanism. Given the near-term deadline and theta-aligned drop amid mixed but non-resolution news, the 14.3pp decline is justified rather than an overreaction, so reversion is not required.