US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? ↗

Price fell 15.5pp from 31.0% to 15.5% over 13.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 17.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 2.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 24.5%, 72h range: 15.5%-76.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = a confirmed/scheduled or held US–Iran diplomatic meeting before May 5; NO = no such meeting scheduled/held by then. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=2). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 31% to 16%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence: the latest headlines point to talks stalled/at impasse, Trump signaling rejection of Iran’s offer, and US skepticism of Tehran’s Hormuz proposal — all push against a near-term meeting and none satisfy the settlement criterion of a confirmed bilateral meeting. With a one-week deadline, time decay plus fresh D-signals justify a 10–15pp drop; there are no countervailing E-signals (e.g., “meeting scheduled/confirmed”). Thus the decline was justified by news and theta; no mean-reversion edge.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.