Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? ↗

Price rose 9.0pp from 67.5% to 76.5% over 22.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 74.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 1.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES=Choo Kyung-ho wins Daegu mayoral race; NO=he loses. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL; Price move direction: UP (from 68% to 76%); Alignment: N/A; Theta: NEUTRAL — election market (no time-decay). No ★ DIRECT resolution evidence (e.g., new reputable poll showing Choo ahead, endorsements materially shifting odds, or official results) appeared during the move; the only priced-in context points to a razor-thin race, which does not justify a 9pp climb. Given the CIRCUIT BREAKER — STALE NEWS warning (feed likely missed the catalyst), I use LOW conviction and SMALL size, but on captured evidence the move looks partially unsupported and prone to some mean reversion.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.