Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? ↗

Price fell 3.0pp from 18.5% to 15.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 15.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 18.5%, 72h range: 15.5%-50.0%] [EVR: 72h range 34.5pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 60 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline within 90 days, trend DOWN, positive action required), but price is now at 15.5% (near the 20% boundary), so theta effect is diminished and further downside is harder. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete evidence of Pezeshkian being ousted or any formal process toward removal. The trend is DOWN, implying "NO" (Pezeshkian remains) is becoming more likely, and the news aligns with this by lacking any ouster momentum. All news is CONTEXT: repeated warnings, rhetoric, and diplomatic posturing from Pezeshkian, but no physical or legal action toward his removal. News momentum is plateauing—multiple articles echo the same warnings and distrust, but there is no escalation or new actors/processes. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 15.5pp. The move is front-loaded and not driven by any new catalyst; it's likely a combination of theta-bleed and lack of ouster process. Step 3 hard rules: No news-trend conflict, but with zero concrete signals and boundary zone, Rule 7 applies—prefer STALL unless fresh catalyst. No phrases like "plateauing" or "echo" describe a concrete action, so no override.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.