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Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? ↗
will-kim-tae-heum-win-the-2026-chungcheongnam-province-gubernatorial-election
· Chungcheongnam Province Governor Election Winner · category: Elections, Global Elections, Main Election, Politics, South Korea, World, World Elections
· resolves
run_id: 6354f7d3-2af2-49e0-807b-87a7a44ecdd2
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
action_not_tradeable: STALL
signal detected
● executed
detect_momentum · UR
direction
DOWN
current price
1.3%
anchor → trigger
4.5% → 1.3%
cusum @ trigger
-4.31
trigger hours
1h
duration
1h
72h range
1.3%—4.5%
(Δ3.2pp)
tick density (6h)
1.00
Price fell 3.2pp from 4.5% to 1.3% over 1h (spike). Now at 1.3%.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 113 → 4
quality: HIGH
tokens: 15385
article_precursor
relevant
제명된 사람" 장동혁, '韓 단일화' 선긋기...정진석은 공천 배제? - 시사저널
gnews_indirect_evidence
relevant
[더in터뷰] 김태흠 "당이 정진석 공천하면 정신 못차렸다는 신호" - JTBC
gnews_indirect_evidence
direct
김태흠 충남지사, 출마 무기한 연기···‘정진석 출마’에 반발? - 경향신문
gnews_thesis
direct
[지선D-30]김태흠 '현역수성' vs 박수현 '담대한 설계' 충남지사 격돌 - 뉴시스
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-UR · continuation analysis
STALL
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_trend_ur_v6.2.0 · 12290 tokens
Days to resolution: 28 days. Theta-bleed check: within 90 days and the trend is DOWN on NO (a positive event—Kim winning—is required), so theta-bleed is active, but with price at 1.3% the boundary dampens further decay impact. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO (Kim weaker), while the trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely), so this is a CONFLICT. After clustering: 1 distinct concrete action (indefinite postponement of resignation and preliminary filing) among 4 articles; the rest are context/interviews with no hard commitments, so momentum looks starved rather than intensifying. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1. Given a small spike with no matching pro-YES direct catalyst and one concrete counter-signal, follow-through lower is limited and boundary effects favor stabilization; Remaining space: 1.3pp. Hard rules: Rule 1 (news-trend conflict) bars CONTINUE; Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) biases to STALL over REVERSE; Rule 5 (spike exhaustion) not triggered.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
all
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ action_not_tradeable: STALL
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.