Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? ↗

Price fell 2.0pp from 24.5% to 22.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 22.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 24.5%, 72h range: 21.5%-48.0%] [EVR: 72h range 26.5pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 243 days. Theta-bleed is negligible at this horizon (>90 days), so time decay does not materially favor either side over a 2-3 day window. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming more likely), but there are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete evidence of Insurrection Act invocation or process steps toward it. All three news items are CONTEXT: one discusses the President's low approval and possible election challenges (speculative, not action), another notes the event is "late 2026—far from now" (implying lack of immediacy), and the third is about a former defense minister being summoned over martial law charges (foreign, not US-specific, and not a direct precursor). The news flow is starved for resolution-relevant content, with no intensification or new actors—momentum is fading, not building. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 17.5pp. Per hard rules, with no ★DIRECT signals and only context/noise, and with the move being modest (2pp, not a spike), this is a classic plateauing scenario. RULE 4 ("plateauing," "not intensifying") binds: Action MUST be STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.