Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ↗

Price rose 7.1pp from 61.1% to 68.2% over 37.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 65.6%, down 2.6pp from peak, 3.0h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Mojtaba Khamenei is head of state in Iran on Dec 31, 2026; NO = someone else holds the office. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: UP
Price move direction: UP (from 61% to 68%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: UP — aligned
No Logical Divergence or Strong Divergence: the rise is not backed by any ★ DIRECT designation/appointment/removal signals, but one headline even refers to Mojtaba as “Iran’s religious leader,” implying a YES-status quo where survival markets drift upward in the absence of new setbacks. Given a far-term deadline and zero opposing D-signals during the move, the 7pp repricing is consistent with theta-aligned drift and context chatter rather than a mispriced spike; no ★ DIRECT events here satisfy or contradict settlement criteria, so the move is reasonably justified.

Kill switches:
- Assembly of Experts formally designates a different figure as Supreme Leader/head of state.
- Official announcement that Mojtaba Khamenei has resigned, been incapacitated, or been barred from assuming/holding the leadership by a clerical or legal ruling.
- IRGC/Supreme National Security Council unveils an interim leadership structure without Mojtaba at the helm.
- State media announces the appointment/enthronement of another person as Supreme Leader.
- Verified reports that Mojtaba Khamenei has died or suffered a severe injury preventing him from serving.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.