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mr
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? ↗
will-donald-trump-announce-that-the-united-states-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-been-lifted-by-may-22-2026
· Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...? · category: Geopolitics, Hormuz, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Middle East, Politics, Strait of Hormuz, Trump, U.S. x Iran
· resolves
run_id: 64da557c-80da-4423-8f59-9b136e3a4dcc
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
low_liquidity_efficiency: spread=1.0pp is > 50% of expected net profit (even at f=1.0)
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
21.5% / 25.5%
move_start
19.5%
reversal
+4.0pp
move size / hours
6.0pp / 37.0h
shape
spike
72h range
15.0%—25.5% (Δ10.5pp)
since peak
1.0h
Price rose 6.0pp from 19.5% to 25.5% over 37.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 21.5%, down 4.0pp from peak, 1.0h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 18.5%, 72h range: 15.0%-25.5%]
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 336 → 7
quality: HIGH
tokens: 15506
article_thesis
noise
Merz: US Remains Germany's Top NATO Partner Despite Trump Feud
article_antithesis
direct
Merz says US remains Germany's 'most important partner' despite troop cuts
article_precursor
direct
US to start escorting stranded ship through Hormuz as positive discussions continue
article_thesis
noise
Pete Hegseth is now bringing his wife to Pentagon meetings: report
article_precursor
noise
Powell plans to stay as Fed governor post-chair term, reducing early exit odds
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
action: NO
override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 16662 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump explicitly announces the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted by May 22, 2026; NO = no such Trump announcement. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 20% to 26%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No Strong Divergence; momentum is mixed, so the UP move lacks confirmatory dominance. Critically, there is no ★ DIRECT resolution-level statement that the blockade is lifted; “talks very positive,” Iran’s 30‑day proposal, and U.S. Navy escorting stranded ships are process/CBMs that don’t satisfy the announcement criterion, while Trump’s public skepticism/rejection of Iran’s proposal and fresh strike warnings are de-escalation blockers. Given the absence of an explicit lifting announcement or “active consideration” by Trump of lifting it, a 6pp spike on process-only news looks like an overshoot likely to revert.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ low_liquidity_efficiency: spread=1.0pp is > 50% of expected net profit (even at f=1.0)
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.