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Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? ↗

will-spencer-pratt-win-the-2026-los-angeles-mayoral-election-983 · Los Angeles Mayoral Election · category: Elections, LA, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Mayoral Election, Mayoral Elections, Politics, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, US Election, mayor · resolves 2026-06-02

run_id: 64ea62d6-dfd8-4580-8f8e-b14d9af60323 · started 2026-05-09T22:09:41 · status skipped · planner_skipped · ✕ planner rejected

[BACKFILLED 2026-05-12] event_dedup self-skip bug blocked at 4.1, but planner would have rejected at step 7 anyway: no_room: BUY_NO but entry=0.2500 <= target=0.2550. Reclassified planner_skipped — no position opened.

AI verdict

Prompt-MR · misprice analysis

● executed

OVERPRICED conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: SMALL action: NO override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT

gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v3 · 14219 tokens

Semantic Polarity: YES = Spencer Pratt wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election; NO = he does not. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: UP (from 26% to 32%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline
No Logical Divergence or Strong Divergence; this was a news-thin spike. There are no ★ DIRECT resolution signals (no new polls showing Pratt leading, no major endorsements/withdrawals, no ballot/access changes, no fundraising shocks); headlines are debate recaps, campaign ads, and media chatter, which do not satisfy settlement criteria. Given a 7pp spike on process-only coverage with zero incremental DIRECT signals and a quick partial reversal, the move looks overstretched and should mean-revert down.

trade plan

position_planner

○ skipped

✕ [BACKFILLED 2026-05-12] event_dedup self-skip bug blocked at 4.1, but planner would have rejected at step 7 anyway: no_room: BUY_NO but entry=0.2500 <= target=0.2550. Reclassified planner_skipped — no position opened.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.