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Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? ↗

will-wes-streeting-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-137 · Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? · category: England, PM, Politics, Starmer, UK, World · resolves 2026-12-31

run_id: 650e6cf2-bda0-4432-bf10-0738b3603028 · started 2026-05-11T21:47:49 · status skipped · planner_skipped · ✕ planner rejected

[BACKFILLED 2026-05-12] event_dedup self-skip bug blocked this at 4.1, but replay shows position_planner.generate_plan() would have rejected at step 7 anyway: poor_real_rr: real_rr 0.57 < 0.65 for steady move (Risk=6.0pp vs Reward=3.4pp). Outcome reclassified planner_skipped — no position opened, no PnL impact.

AI verdict

Prompt-MR · misprice analysis

● executed

UNDERPRICED conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: SMALL action: YES override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT

gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.7 · 17439 tokens

Semantic Polarity: YES = Wes Streeting becomes PM by end-2026; NO = Starmer remains PM or someone else is PM by end-2026. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2 (Streeting leadership-bid reports; Starmer rocked by multiple senior resignations and >50 MPs urging exit), D=0 (priced-in: E=1 from earlier weekend leadership-bid chatter; D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: DOWN (from 26% to 18%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline
Logical Divergence: Price fell despite fresh E9 (candidate visibility surge for Streeting: multiple reports he’s preparing a leadership bid) and E10 (opponent damage: three top aides resign; >50 MPs call for Starmer to go), so divergence favors mean reversion up. These are not resolution-level events (they don’t make Streeting PM yet) but they materially open the pathway required by the ruleset for YES; there are no qualifying D9 counters (no polls or institutional endorsements against Streeting). Given pro-YES momentum during the drop, a 7pp decline looks overstated relative to the news and should partially revert.

trade plan

position_planner

○ skipped

✕ [BACKFILLED 2026-05-12] event_dedup self-skip bug blocked this at 4.1, but replay shows position_planner.generate_plan() would have rejected at step 7 anyway: poor_real_rr: real_rr 0.57 < 0.65 for steady move (Risk=6.0pp vs Reward=3.4pp). Outcome reclassified planner_skipped — no position opened, no PnL impact.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.