Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? ↗

Price rose 3.0pp from 20.5% to 23.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 23.5%.

Days to resolution: 60 days. Theta-bleed is not a major factor here (deadline > 90 days), so time decay does not strongly bias the market. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT news events supporting either YES or NO; all four events are CONTEXT only. The trend is UP (YES more likely), but the news does not align—there is no direct evidence for Abelardo de la Espriella's candidacy gaining, nor any process signal (poll, endorsement, campaign event) relevant to his chances. The most relevant CONTEXT event is a plot against Iván Cepeda, a leading candidate, but this is not a direct signal for Abelardo and does not imply a shift in the race toward him. The other events (French support for Colombia, US tech policy, Colombia's regional alignment) are general context and not election-specific. News momentum is STARVED: no intensifying or even plateauing coverage about Abelardo, just unrelated or tangential developments. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 76.5pp. Per hard rules, with zero ★DIRECT signals and no process news, the move appears to be liquidity-driven or speculative, not information-driven. No rules are triggered that would allow CONTINUE or REVERSE; this is a classic STALL scenario.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.