Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 10.7pp from 22.4% to 33.1% over 3.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 27.4%, down 5.7pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 17.3%, 72h range: 15.2%-50.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026; NO = at least one qualifying meeting occurs. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: UP
Price move direction: UP (from 22% to 33%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: UP — aligned, far-term (>60 days)
No headlines confirm or schedule a qualifying US-Iran meeting; instead, multiple distinct ★ DIRECT blockers occurred during the move: Trump vowed to maintain/extend the naval blockade (and keep it until a deal), rejected Iran’s latest proposal, and Tehran threatened “practical” action—all of which reduce near-term meeting odds. With theta aligned and zero opposing D signals (talks/meetings scheduled) to counter the rise, a ~10pp repricing is reasonable process/actuary logic rather than overshoot, so the move was justified and not a mean-reversion target.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.