← back to pipeline
mom
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? ↗
will-ed-gallrein-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ky-04
· KY-04 Republican Primary Winner · category: Elections, House Primary, Kentucky Primary, Politics, Primaries, Republican Primary, primary elections
· resolves
run_id: 673d67b4-e17a-4483-8974-b7ef1ae6191c
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
action_not_tradeable: STALL
signal detected
● executed
detect_momentum · UR
direction
UP
current price
23.3%
anchor → trigger
20.9% → 23.3%
cusum @ trigger
4.80
trigger hours
1h
duration
1h
72h range
20.9%—28.7%
(Δ7.8pp)
tick density (6h)
0.83
Price rose 2.4pp from 20.9% to 23.3% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 23.3%.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 49 → 3
quality: HIGH
tokens: 4823
gnews_mechanism
relevant
Kentucky Fourth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls - The New York Times
article_thesis
relevant
JUST IN: Trump Makes Endorsement In Closely-Watched Senate Race - Conservative Angle
article_thesis
relevant
Trump reshapes Kentucky Senate race to replace Mitch McConnell with endorsement, job offer
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-UR · continuation analysis
STALL
conviction: LOW
opportunity: SMALL
action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_trend_ur_v6.1.0 · 8284 tokens
Days to resolution: 15 days. Theta-bleed check: deadline is within 90 days and a positive action (winning the nomination) is required, so in the absence of news time decay is a headwind for YES; with an UP move, theta-bleed does not support continuation. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED, as there are no direct signals about Ed Gallrein or the KY-04 primary; the trend is UP for YES, but the news does not align with that move. Coverage is starved and the items provided are either generic polling placeholders or unrelated Kentucky Senate endorsement news, suggesting no fresh catalyst for KY-04. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 76.7pp. Given a front-loaded uptick without direct catalysts and time-decay headwinds, follow-through looks limited; per hard rules, starved/plateauing coverage and balanced mixed signals imply STALL.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
all
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ action_not_tradeable: STALL
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.