Kash Patel out by December 31? ↗

Price fell 5.0pp from 61.5% to 56.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 56.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 66.0%, 72h range: 56.5%-68.0%]

Days to resolution: 238 days. Theta-bleed check: deadline >90 days, so time decay is negligible over the next few days. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports neither side; there are zero resolution-touching actions, while the trend is DOWN (NO getting less likely, i.e., YES more likely), so the move is not aligned with any concrete news. News momentum is starved/plateauing: multiple pieces are commentary or conflicting reports about media/leaks and sheriff disputes, with no formal action on Patel’s status. After clustering: 0 distinct ★DIRECT events from 30 articles; effectively all are NOISE with no process or personnel moves. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 43.5pp. Hard rule check: Rule 4 (use of “plateauing/starved” with no concrete catalyst) binds → STALL; no Rule 1 conflict, theta-bleed not applicable, and no multi-threshold or boundary constraints triggered.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.