Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗

Price fell 6.0pp from 35.5% to 29.5% over 52.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 31.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 49.0h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = the U.S. undertakes an invasion of Iran (clear offensive entry with ground forces/occupation); NO = no U.S. invasion by 2027, including defensive naval escorts, diplomacy, or limited strikes short of invasion. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 36% to 30%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence: the dominant signals are de-escalatory/defensive (D>E), so the downward move is aligned; no Strong Divergence. ★ DIRECT-ish events are all short of invasion: U.S. destroyers entering the Gulf to escort shipping is a defensive deployment (D), Bessent urging China to press Iran is diplomacy (D1/D5), Iran’s “warning shots”/claims vs U.S. denials are not U.S. offensive intent (D per “A is attacked”), and the only escalation-type process is “talks deadlocked” (E6) without any E7 ultimatum/plan or invasion-specific mobilization. Given theta-aligned decay in a far-term market with fewer than three opposing E signals, the 6pp drop is reasonably justified by time-decay plus defensive/diplomatic news rather than an overreaction; no clear basis for mean-reversion.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.