Kash Patel out by June 30? ↗

Price fell 10.0pp from 40.5% to 30.5% over 55.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 33.5%, up 3.0pp from trough, 11.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Patel leaves office (removed/resigns) by June 30; NO = he remains in office through June 30. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. 
Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 40% to 30%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence or Strong Divergence: there were no ★ DIRECT reports of resignation, removal, formal proceedings, or credible health/indictment triggers; the news was mostly SNL satire plus one “reforms announced” write-up, which at best is process/context and not resolution-level. Absent direct signals, the 10pp decline is consistent with near-deadline time decay for a “by date” departure market, and the Theta Hard Rule compels a FAIR assessment. Net: the drop looks largely theta-driven rather than news-driven; while some bounce is possible, the move itself was justified by time decay rather than overreaction.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.