China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 3.5pp from 11.0% to 14.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 14.5%.

Days to resolution: 233 days. Not an election market and the deadline is >90 days, so theta-bleed is negligible over a 2–3 day horizon. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED: the fresh items are about Trump–Xi talks and the Iran/Hormuz situation, not China–India, and the only seemingly relevant “China admitted aiding Pakistan in 2025” items are stale and rhetorical, not current physical moves toward a China–India clash. Momentum appears starved/plateauing: the move was front_loaded with no fresh, resolution-relevant catalyst (no PLA/IA deployments, border incidents, or orders), and the stale admission story should already be priced. After clustering, there are no fresh, concrete escalation or de-escalation signals tied to a China–India clash; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no actionable signals and ample remaining space, short-term follow-through is unlikely; Remaining space: 85.5pp. Step 3 check: Rule 4 (plateauing/starved phrasing) binds → STALL; no other hard rules apply.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.