Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? ↗

Price fell 8.2pp from 46.5% to 38.3% over 9.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 41.4%, up 3.1pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 42.0%, 72h range: 38.3%-52.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=Russia captures Kostyantynivka by June 30; NO=Russia fails to capture it by then. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=2). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 46% to 38%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Strong Divergence: the only incremental signal was a CONTEXT report of Russian advances near Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad (E), which is not in Kostyantynivka and does not directly satisfy the capture criterion; the two de-risking Ukrainian statements that Russia’s aims/deadline are unrealistic were older (priced-in). With a hard deadline market, status-quo time decay pulls YES down; far-term theta is soft but opposing (E) count is <3, so by Theta Hard Rule this drop is reasonably justified. Given only process/context headlines and no ★ DIRECT progress on Kostyantynivka itself, the 8.2pp decline looks like theta-aligned repricing within a larger 72h swing rather than an overreaction.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.