Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? ↗

Price rose 4.4pp from 94.0% to 98.4% over 1h (spike). Now at 98.4%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 94.5%, 72h range: 88.2%-98.4%]

Days to resolution: 5 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES, but it is expectation/process-level (no scheduled vote or recorded tally), so it weakly aligns with the UP trend. Coverage is thin and not intensifying; there is no fresh concrete procedural step during the window, so the spike looks like expectation chasing and is plateauing near the boundary. After clustering: 2 distinct ★DIRECT items from 2 articles. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=1, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 1.6pp; without a new hard catalyst (e.g., vote scheduling or confirmation vote), upside is capped and follow-through is limited, so stabilization is more likely than further rise. Step 3 hard rule check: Rule 4 (plateauing language) → STALL; Rule 5 not triggered (spike <5pp); Rule 7 not applicable; no news-trend conflict.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.