Starmer out by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 14.0pp from 21.5% to 35.5% over 49.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 32.5%, down 3.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 22.5%, 72h range: 17.5%-49.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=Starmer out by June 30, 2026; NO=Starmer still PM on that date. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=4, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified) — E from heavy Labour local-election losses, multiple MP/party calls for him to resign, Miliband reportedly urging a departure timeline, and a former minister backing Burnham; D from Starmer explicitly refusing to resign, Burnham pulling a touted speech, and senior allies backing him. Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=4, D=3). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 22% to 36%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence; the move appears driven by process-only, stale coverage without fresh, resolution-level developments. Critically, there are no ★ DIRECT steps toward removal (no resignation statement, no formal leadership challenge triggered, no-confidence vote scheduled), while Starmer’s on-record refusal to quit cuts against immediate resolution. Given a 14pp spike on process news and the circuit-breaker stale-feed warning (likely missing catalyst), the rise looks partially unjustified and prone to drift lower.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.