Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? ↗

Price rose 3.1pp from 0.1% to 3.2% over 1h (steady). Now at 3.2%.

Days to resolution: 50 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a time-decay market within 90 days that requires a positive action; absence of concrete scheduling would normally drift odds down, so theta does not support this UP move. The ★DIRECT news predominantly points away from Qatar and toward Pakistan (WSJ-sourced reports of talks resuming in Islamabad), while Qatar-related items are CONTEXT about mediation (Rubio meeting the Qatari PM in Miami) rather than venue confirmation — so alignment is ASYMMETRIC MIXED leaning against YES. Momentum looks plateauing: multiple outlets echo the same Islamabad rumor, but there is no concrete, official scheduling for Qatar. After clustering, there is 1 distinct ★DIRECT venue report (Islamabad) echoed across several pieces; by Principle 4 it is RHETORIC/sourced reporting, not ACTION. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Continuation vs reversal: with zero actionable venue signals for Qatar and counter-rumors favoring Pakistan, the recent uptick lacks hard support and is likely to stall near current levels rather than build. Remaining space: 96.8pp. Step 3 checks: Not a clear NEWS-TREND CONFLICT (context exists for Qatar), but evidence is ASYMMETRIC MIXED and I used “plateauing,” so Rule 4 points to STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.