Iran leadership change by June 30? ↗

Price fell 7.5pp from 19.0% to 11.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 11.5%.

Days to resolution: 54 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline <90 days and a positive action is required), so in the absence of direct succession/crisis news, drift should favor NO; that makes a sudden 7.5pp drop in NO suspect without direct catalysts. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (there are no direct resolution-touching items), while the contextual news flow is de-escalatory (reports of a near-term US–Iran MOU and a formal pause of US naval escorts), which generally lowers near-term leadership-change risk and thus favors NO; the trend is DOWN (NO less likely), so this is a CONFLICT. Coverage during the hour centers on a single de-escalation development reported across many outlets plus the announced pause of naval escorts — not new succession mechanics or regime crisis. After clustering, these amount to two distinct counter signals against further downside in NO. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=2. With a spike move lacking direct leadership-change catalysts, plus theta-bleed and de-escalation context, reversal pressure dominates; Current price is 11.5%, Remaining space: 11.5pp, so any projected move should be modest near the lower boundary. Hard rule checks: Rule 1 (news–trend conflict) points to STALL/REVERSE; Rule 5 (spike without fresh direct catalyst) leans REVERSE; Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) caps magnitude.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.