Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? ↗

Price fell 4.0pp from 12.5% to 8.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 8.5%.

Days to resolution: 42 days. Theta-bleed check: The primary is within 90 days and “YES” requires a positive action (McCall winning), so absence of news is typically bearish for YES; since the observed move is NO falling (implying YES rising), it lacks theta support and should not persist on time decay alone. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED; there are no direct resolution-touching signals, while the trend is DOWN implying YES is becoming more likely. Coverage is starved and generic (polls page, debate participation notice, spending/op-eds) with no concrete polls or endorsements specific to McCall, suggesting a liquidity-driven spike with limited follow-through. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 8.5pp. With no catalyst and price already ≤20%, boundary dynamics plus theta-bleed favor stabilization rather than continued decline; reversal risk exists but the sub-5pp spike size argues for a stall over a snap-back. Step 3 hard rule check: Rule 4 (starved/plateauing) → STALL; Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) reinforces STALL; Rule 5 (spike >5pp) not applicable.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.