Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? ↗

Price fell 3.5pp from 63.5% to 60.0% over 1h (spike). Now at 60.0%.

Days to resolution: 238 days. Theta-bleed check: Deadline >90 days, so time-decay is negligible over the next few days; absence of news does not inherently pressure the price lower. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (there are none), while the trend is DOWN, implying YES (Patel leaves) is becoming more likely; these do not align. Coverage is starved/plateauing with only CONTEXT items (interviews, commentary, and local case coverage) and no formal actions indicating Patel’s removal, resignation, suspension, or a process that would force departure. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no catalyst behind a small, intrahour spike and a long horizon, follow‑through looks limited; remaining space for a further DOWN move is large, but the lack of concrete signals argues for stabilization. Remaining space: 60.0pp. Step 3 hard rule check: Rule 4 binds (plateauing/starved → STALL); Rule 1 not triggered; Rule 2 not triggered; no other hard rules apply.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.