Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? ↗

Price rose 4.4pp from 63.8% to 68.2% over 1h (spike). Now at 68.2%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 64.7%, 72h range: 48.5%-68.5%] [EVR: 72h range 20.0pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 57 days. Theta-bleed check: the deadline is within 90 days, but the trend is UP, so theta-bleed (which would favor DOWN on inaction) does not apply. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES: the US response to Iran being transmitted via Pakistan, after Iran’s proposal was sent through Pakistani mediation, reinforces Pakistan as the active conduit and plausible venue; the UP move aligns with this. Momentum is modestly intensifying with a fresh, concrete process step (receipt of the US response via Pakistan) that goes beyond rhetoric, and the 4.4pp spike has a clear catalyst. After clustering: two distinct ★DIRECT process actions (proposal sent via Pakistan; US response received via Pakistan) and no comparably strong counter-signals specific to venue; Momentum signals: trend=2, counter=0. With the price at 68.2%, there is ample room for follow-through if this channel consolidates into a scheduled meeting in Islamabad; Remaining space: 31.8pp. Hard rule check: no news-trend conflict (Rule 1), not balanced mixed (Rule 2), spike <5pp with a confirmed catalyst (Rule 5 not binding), and coverage reflects confirmed process actions rather than mere rhetoric (Rule 4 exception A).