Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? ↗

Price fell 16.5pp from 59.5% to 43.0% over 4.0h (back_loaded), then reversed. Now at 45.5%, up 2.5pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = any Canadian province officially schedules an independence referendum by Dec 31, 2026; NO = no province schedules such a vote. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E≈1 from earlier petition/organizing coverage). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 60% to 43%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No divergence: price fell in the same direction as the dominant fresh signal (a court block), and there is no Strong Divergence. ★ DIRECT: An Alberta Court of King’s Bench ruling quashed Elections Alberta’s approval of the separation-referendum petition (multiple headlines, one event), which blocks a primary pathway to scheduling and clearly fails to satisfy the market’s criterion (no referendum scheduled) while making it less likely in the near term. Given a high-impact institutional block can rationally justify a 10–20pp repricing and theta is aligned and far-term with zero opposing incremental E signals, the 16.5pp drop is largely justified; only modest mean reversion is warranted absent new pro-YES developments.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.