US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? ↗

Price rose 6.0pp from 53.5% to 59.5% over 8.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 57.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 5.0h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 55.5%, 72h range: 52.5%-70.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=US and Iran reach/sign a nuclear deal before end-2026; NO=no such deal by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Cessation D-collapse: raw D=many → collapsed D=2 (formal US rejection of Tehran’s proposal; Iran “rules out compromise”). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=1, D=1). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 54% to 60%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed/no deadline
Logical Divergence present; no Strong Divergence. The only resolution-adjacent E was older (“Exclusive: Iran agrees to hold nuclear talks within 30 days”), while fresh ★ DIRECT actions were deal-blocking stances (e.g., Trump formally rejecting Iran’s response; Iran ruling out compromise), and none meets the settlement criterion of an actual nuclear agreement. Given the lack of new, verified progress toward a nuclear deal, a 6pp spike is not justified by the news and should partially mean-revert.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.