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Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? ↗
will-mary-peltola-win-the-alaska-senate-race-in-2026
· Alaska Senate Election Winner · category: Alaska Midterm, Elections, Midterms, Politics, Senate midterms, US Election
· resolves
run_id: 774d871e-cbf9-44ac-bc44-1f6fb6906b7b
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
poor_real_rr: real_rr 0.30 < 0.45 for spike move (Risk=7.4pp vs Reward=2.2pp)
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
UP
current / peak
59.5% / 48.0%
move_start
64.0%
reversal
+11.5pp
move size / hours
16.0pp / 98.5h
shape
spike
72h range
48.0%—63.5% (Δ15.5pp)
since peak
0.5h
Price fell 16.0pp from 64.0% to 48.0% over 98.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 59.5%, up 11.5pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 30 → 6
quality: HIGH
tokens: 15220
gnews_thesis
relevant
Alaska U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls - The New York Times
gnews_antithesis
direct
Peltola leads Sullivan in Alaska Senate race poll - MSN
gnews_indirect_evidence
noise
2026 Primary Election Calendar: What Races Are Today? - NBC News
gnews_indirect_evidence
relevant
Democrats are still underdogs in the Senate - Decision Desk HQ | Substack
article_thesis
noise
Ahead of midterms, Democrats cautious on cornering Trump
gnews_antithesis
relevant
Democrats could actually retake the Senate. Here are the races to watch. - The Washington Post
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
UNDERPRICED
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: LARGE
action: YES
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 11716 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Mary Peltola wins the 2026 Alaska Senate race; NO = she does not. Trend is DOWN (64% → 48%), pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 64% to 48%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline No ★ DIRECT, resolution-adjacent developments (e.g., candidate withdrawal, disqualification, rule change, or Alaska-specific shock) appear; the only salient item is a poll showing Peltola leading Sullivan (contextual and actually supportive of YES), which contradicts the downward move. A 16pp drop on process-only/context news is outsized versus the informational content, suggesting emotion/flow rather than structure. Therefore the fall was not justified by the provided news, and the reversal toward prior levels should continue.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ poor_real_rr: real_rr 0.30 < 0.45 for spike move (Risk=7.4pp vs Reward=2.2pp)
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.