Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? ↗

Price fell 5.5pp from 32.5% to 27.0% over 2h (spike). Now at 27.0%.

Days to resolution: 236 days. Theta-bleed check: Not an election; deadline >90 days, so time decay is negligible over the next few days and does not favor either side. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports neither side — there are no direct, Lyman-specific capture/withdrawal confirmations; the trend is DOWN, implying NO is becoming less likely, but the news is STARVED with respect to the resolution criteria. Momentum-wise, coverage centers on Victory Day, drones, and general war context; nothing concrete about territorial control in Lyman, and the move was a 5.5pp spike without a matching ★DIRECT catalyst. After clustering: 0 distinct ★DIRECT events from 29 total articles; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no fresh, resolution-relevant signals and given the spike shape, the move looks liquidity- or noise-driven and is prone to partial retracement rather than follow-through; long horizon further reduces the chance that generic war headlines lock in this move. Remaining space: 27pp. Step 3 hard rule check: Rule 1 (news-trend conflict) not triggered; Rule 2 (balanced mixed) not triggered; Rule 3 not applicable; Rule 5 (spike >5pp with no fresh catalyst) applies → lean REVERSE; no other binding rules.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.