Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? ↗

Price fell 2.6pp from 5.1% to 2.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 2.5%.

Days to resolution: 53 days. Theta-bleed check: active (deadline <90 days, YES requires a positive action), so in the absence of concrete meeting news, probabilities should drift toward NO — today’s DOWN move in NO runs against theta-bleed. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (there are no direct signals at all), while the trend is DOWN (NO less likely), so there is no alignment and no catalyst backing the move. News momentum is starved and limited to context about a Trump–Xi Beijing meeting and China–Iran diplomacy, none of which mentions Putin or a Trump–Putin meeting in China. After classification, all items are NOISE for this market: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Continuation vs. reversal: with zero direct signals and theta-bleed favoring NO, plus deep boundary effects, the front-loaded dip in NO is more likely to stall than extend. Remaining space: 2.5pp. Step 3 checks: Rule 4 (starved/plateauing) → STALL; Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary ≤20%) biases to STALL absent a fresh direct catalyst.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.