Iran closes its airspace by May 8? ↗

Price fell 6.0pp from 26.5% to 20.5% over 1.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 24.5%, up 4.0pp from trough, 1.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 13.5%, 72h range: 11.5%-26.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran issues an official NOTAM/CAA order closing its national airspace to civilian traffic by May 8; NO = no such closure is ordered. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 26% to 20%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence: the drop aligns with de-escalatory process signals (D1/D7: Iran received the U.S. response via Pakistan and is reviewing a 14‑point proposal), and there are zero ★ DIRECT reports of an airspace NOTAM/closure; maritime incidents in the Strait of Hormuz do not satisfy the airspace-closure criterion. With a near-term “by May 8” deadline, the move is theta-aligned and supported by talks/process news without any direct closure trigger, so the 6pp decline is justified rather than an overreaction.