US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price fell 10.3pp from 40.8% to 30.5% over 62.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 32.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 4.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 40.5%, 72h range: 30.5%-52.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = a formal, durable US–Iran peace deal is agreed/signed by the deadline; NO = continued hostility/posturing with no agreement. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Cessation D-collapse: raw D=3 → collapsed D=1. Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 41% to 30%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Strong Divergence: the only pro-deal signal is Trump saying “Iran is desperate to make a deal,” while multiple blockers (State Dept rejecting an “Obama-style” deal; Iran’s piracy accusation; Iran’s president citing “complete distrust”) make a near-term agreement less likely; none are resolution-level E signals (no talks scheduled, no framework, no draft). Given a near-deadline “by date” market, the steady 10pp drop is consistent with time decay plus mild D8-style rhetorical setbacks rather than an emotional overshoot. The move was justified by process/headline flow and theta, so a strong mean-reversion case is weak (only a small bounce already occurred).

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.