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Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? ↗

will-spencer-pratt-win-the-2026-los-angeles-mayoral-election-983 · Los Angeles Mayoral Election · category: Elections, LA, Los Angeles, Los Angeles Mayoral Election, Mayoral Elections, Politics, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, US Election, mayor · resolves 2026-06-02

run_id: 7a64eb94-e897-4817-91cc-a5351cff288e · started 2026-05-10T01:00:43 · status skipped · planner_skipped · ✕ planner rejected

[BACKFILLED 2026-05-12] event_dedup self-skip bug blocked at 4.1, but planner would have rejected at step 7 anyway: poor_real_rr: real_rr 0.34 < 0.45 for spike move (Risk=6.0pp vs Reward=2.0pp). Reclassified planner_skipped — no position opened.

AI verdict

Prompt-MR · misprice analysis

● executed

UNDERPRICED conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: SMALL action: YES override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT

gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.7 · 15472 tokens

Semantic Polarity: YES=Spencer Pratt wins LA mayor in 2026; NO=Pratt loses. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1 (new ad/video visibility cycle), D=0 (priced-in: E=1 from the 5/7 debate visibility, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: DOWN (from 31% to 24%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — election/leadership (no theta effect)
Logical Divergence: Yes (price fell while incremental news was net pro-YES), but not strong (E<4). The only fresh, resolution-adjacent development was an E9 visibility surge (multiple 5/9 pieces on Pratt’s new campaign video/ads/billboard), with no D9 counter-signals (no new polls showing him trailing, no major opponent endorsements, no post-event fundraising data); a negative-tinged CBS “tirade” story is qualitative and does not meet D9. With no ★ DIRECT election-metric hits against Pratt, a 6.3pp drop on process/visibility-positive news looks overdone and has already begun to revert; expect further partial reversion upward.

trade plan

position_planner

○ skipped

✕ [BACKFILLED 2026-05-12] event_dedup self-skip bug blocked at 4.1, but planner would have rejected at step 7 anyway: poor_real_rr: real_rr 0.34 < 0.45 for spike move (Risk=6.0pp vs Reward=2.0pp). Reclassified planner_skipped — no position opened.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.