Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? ↗

Price fell 5.0pp from 68.5% to 63.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 63.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 68.5%, 72h range: 48.5%-69.5%] [EVR: 72h range 21.0pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 45 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline within 90 days, trend DOWN, positive action required for YES), so in the absence of strong pro-YES news, time decay supports the current downward move. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news is limited—a single event where Keiko Fujimori supports the removal of the electoral chief, which is more a process/rhetoric signal than a direct resolution-class action. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming more likely), and the news is MIXED but leans toward NO: the CONTEXT events focus on the resignation of the electoral chief and deepening political uncertainty, but none provide a concrete, high-quality signal that directly advances or blocks Fujimori's path to victory. News momentum is plateauing: the resignation is widely reported but not escalating, and there is no new, high-impact development directly affecting Fujimori's win probability. After clustering, there is 1 distinct ★DIRECT event (Fujimori's statement) and 1 major CONTEXT event (Corvetto's resignation), both related to electoral process uncertainty rather than direct changes in Fujimori's electoral chances. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 13.5pp. The move is a 5pp spike, but the news does not provide a strong, fresh catalyst—it's more a digestion of ongoing process uncertainty. Hard rule check: No clear news-trend conflict, not highly mixed, not spike exhaustion, and theta-bleed supports mild continuation in the absence of strong counter-signals.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.