Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 10.1pp from 15.5% to 25.6% over 5h (steady). Now at 25.6%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 15.5%, 72h range: 15.3%-50.0%] [EVR: 72h range 34.7pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 61 days. Theta-bleed is not a major factor (deadline > 90 days), so time decay does not drive price action here. Step 1a: The trend is UP (YES becoming more likely), but there are zero ★DIRECT signals—no news directly referencing the specific criteria for a "qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting" or its absence. All news is CONTEXT: it covers US-Iran tensions, war costs, blockades, and failed negotiations, but none confirm or deny the occurrence or scheduling of a qualifying meeting. The news is plateauing, with repeated coverage of the same themes (blockade extension, negotiation impasse, economic pressure), but no new actors or concrete diplomatic process steps. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 74.4pp. The move is steady, but with no direct evidence, and the EVR flag (extreme volatility) suggests price is moving on sentiment or liquidity, not new information. Step 3 hard rule: With zero ★DIRECT signals and only contextual escalation rhetoric, Principle 1 and the military action module require STALL—rhetoric is not action, and there is no process or physical evidence to justify further continuation.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.