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mr
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? ↗
will-donald-trump-visit-china-on-may-14-2026
· Will Trump visit China on...? · category: China, Geopolitics, Politics, Tariffs, Trade War, Trump, Trump-Xi, Trump-Xi Summit, rewards 100, 4.5, 100
· resolves
run_id: 7d3e0bf7-305a-4764-8290-8f48de58883d
· started
· status
skipped
· price_skipped
· ✕ 2.5 price bound gate
extreme_yes_price:0.055
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
UNDERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
action: YES
override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.7 · 17629 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump physically visits China on May 14; NO = he does not visit on that date. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=6, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=4, D=0 (priced-in: E=2, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: DOWN (from 18% to 12%) Alignment: SAME Theta: DOWN — aligned Despite theta-alignment, there is Strong Divergence: multiple fresh confirmations that the visit is scheduled for May 14–15 and proceeding (Trump confirmed the trip will go forward; a White House official detailed his two-day China visit “this week”; multiple outlets state May 14–15 timing and even expected arrival the prior evening; China/US pre-briefs and preparations) oppose the price drop. These items are directly resolution-adjacent to “visit on May 14” and none indicate delay/cancellation, so they increase the probability of a May 14 presence rather than reduce it. The 6pp decline is not justified by the news flow and should revert upward as the market absorbs these on-record schedule confirmations.