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Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?

cap-on-gambling-loss-deductions-repealed-before-2027 · Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? · category: Politics, Taxes · resolves
run_id: 7dbbdf4c-3d66-465f-9604-e1c482b6cb18 · started · status skipped · planner_skipped · ✕ planner rejected
no_trade: action=OMIT
signal detected

detect_reversal

● executed
direction
UP
current / peak
15.5% / 13.5%
move_start
21.0%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
7.5pp / 13.5h
shape
steady
72h range
13.5%—31.0% (Δ17.5pp)
since peak
3.0h

Price fell 7.5pp from 21.0% to 13.5% over 13.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 15.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 3.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 22.0%, 72h range: 13.5%-31.0%]

news gathered

news retrieval (tomographic)

● executed
raw→filtered: 17 → 0 quality: LOW tokens: 9788

retrieval recorded but no surviving headlines — the keyword nets didn't match any articles in the window.

AI verdict

Prompt-MR · misprice analysis

● executed
FAIR conviction: LOW opportunity: None action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.8 · 12453 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = the statutory cap on gambling loss deductions is repealed and enacted into law before 2027; NO = the cap remains in place through 2026. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 21% to 14%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence; with zero opposing E-signals, the decline matches time-decay. There are no ★ DIRECT resolution-adjacent events in the feed (e.g., L1 votes passing, L4 framework, or enacted repeal) to contradict the drop, so the 7.5pp move is justified by theta and lack of progress; limited reversion is warranted.
rule audit

audit_gate

● executed
ALL
trade plan

position_planner

○ skipped
✕ no_trade: action=OMIT

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.

step post-omit

news watch (A.2 / A.3)

● executed
watch: 74936de4
status: ⏳ expired
armed: 2026-05-12T15:04Z
closed: 2026-05-13T15:53Z
polls: 6
signals seen: 4012
decision price: 15.5pct